What Price Surge?

[Originally posted on goofyblog 4.15.07]

From the New York Times, April 2nd:

The most powerful Shiite cleric in Iraq has rejected an American-backed proposal to allow thousands of former members of Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party to return to government service, an aide to the cleric said Monday.

The rejection by the cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, appears certain to fuel hostility between the majority Shiites and the former ruling Sunni Arabs, since many Sunni Arabs say they were unfairly purged from the government in the clampdown on the Baath Party.

The Americans say a partial reversal of the de-Baathification process, which began in 2003, is one of the most crucial steps the Iraqi government can take in wooing back disaffected Sunni Arabs and draining the Sunni-led insurgency of its zealotry. The White House has repeatedly told the Iraqi government that the process must be changed.

Cenk Uyger has written an article about this development. In the Iraqi world, it’s the turning point for the American experiment in Iraq. Let’s just break down the article into an easy-to-read schedule of developments, as follows:

1. Sunnis denied government jobs by Shiite Ayotollah; have no incentive to join in legitimizing the government; fight back against a government that excludes them

2. Insurgency grows and“surge” fails to stem growing insurgency
-either-2a. U.S. begins withdrawal; is replaced by Shiite militias

-or-

2a. “Stay the course”

2b. Shiite militias become impatient with lack of progress; begin attacking Sunnis

2c. U.S. engages Shiite militias in battle

3. U.S. is now in the middle of a Civil War, fighting both sides

-either-

3a. We hastily withdraw

-or-

3a. Our military experience heavy losses

4. We withdraw